Ballinamallard Unitedvs
Warrenpoint Town
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warrenpoint Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ballinamallard United 2-2 Warrenpoint Town
Original prediction
Warrenpoint Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.0% | 38.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 23.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.1% | 38.3% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Warrenpoint Town
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Warrenpoint Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00