Ballinamallard Unitedvs
Ards
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballinamallard United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ballinamallard United 1-1 Ards
Original prediction
Ballinamallard United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.1% | 50.2% | 15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.5% | 23.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.4% | 26.4% | -12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Ballinamallard United
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Ballinamallard United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20