Bala Townvs
Buckley Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bala Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bala Town 2-3 Buckley Town
Original prediction
Bala Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 60.9% | 48.0% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 20.7% | 20.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 18.4% | 31.1% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–16%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Bala Town
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Bala Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60