Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahrain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahrain 2-5 Yemen
Original prediction
Bahrain
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.2% | 43.4% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.8% | 27.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.79 | 19.1% | 29.4% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Bahrain
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Bahrain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BahrainLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
YemenLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BahrainYemen
0.0Attack0.0
16.7Defence16.7
0.0Form0.0
13.2Power11.2
1.48xG1.25