Bahrainvs
United Arab Emirates
COMPLETEDWorld · Gulf Cup of Nations · 9/27/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United Arab Emirates · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahrain 0-3 United Arab Emirates
Original prediction
United Arab Emirates
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.76 | 15.8% | 26.1% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 27.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 59.0% | 46.4% | -12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
United Arab Emirates
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
United Arab Emirates has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80