Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahla 1-0 Al Nasr
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 26.5% | 28.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.83 | 31.7% | 28.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 41.8% | 43.1% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BahlaWWDWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NasrWDLDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BahlaAl Nasr
41.7Attack58.3
58.3Defence91.7
50.0Form100.0
51.8Power86.5
0.93xG1.34