Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Bahia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Palmeiras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 13.8-point power-rating edge (53.9 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80