Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bahia are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold a 2.6-point power-rating edge (53.9 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Serie A, while Bahia holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
14.2%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00