Serie ASerie A
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 12:36
Bahia

Bahia

Home
W
20
Full time
Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc

Away
L
Arena Fonte Nova
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Bahia(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Bahia
Win probability
Bahia
44%
Draw
27%
Chapecoense-sc
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Bahia
73
Chapecoense-sc
9
Defence
Bahia
91
Chapecoense-sc
27
Momentum
Bahia
100
Chapecoense-sc
0
Danger (xG)
Bahia
1.80
Chapecoense-sc
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Bahia)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Chapecoense-sc)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Bahia)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Chapecoense-sc)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
BahiaBahia
WL
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
L

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Bahia44%
Draw27%
Chapecoense-sc29%

Bahia leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Bahia head into this in Serie A fixture at Arena Fonte Nova in mixed form (W), while Chapecoense-sc arrive in mixed form (L). Bahia have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Chapecoense-sc over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Bahia's strong attack (73/100) faces a vulnerable Chapecoense-sc defence (27/100), while Chapecoense-sc's attack is up against a watertight Bahia backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Bahia's favour.

Bahia have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Chapecoense-sc have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

Bahia have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Bahia to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Bahia 4367%, Draw 2688%, Chapecoense-sc 2945%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Bahia 1Draws 00 Chapecoense-sc
Avg goals: 2.0
17 Jul 2026
Bahia
W20
Chapecoense-sc

Recent form

Bahia

Bahia

W
vs Chapecoense-sc
17 Jul 2026
20
L
@ Remo
14 May 2026
12
Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc

L
@ Bahia
17 Jul 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?

GoalVio's model predicts Bahia to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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