Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bahia are 3W-0D-1L in their last 4 (LWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Botafogo are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 3.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 9 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 51.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the Serie A, while Bahia holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80