Bahamasvs
US Virgin Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
US Virgin Islands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahamas 2-3 US Virgin Islands
Original prediction
US Virgin Islands
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.34 | 21.2% | 29.2% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.3% | 24.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 56.5% | 46.0% | -10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
US Virgin Islands
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
US Virgin Islands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 21 · avg 1.60/4.20
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20