Bahamasvs
Saint Martin
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Martin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahamas 0-8 Saint Martin
Original prediction
Saint Martin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 15.30 | 6.0% | 30.2% | 24.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.51 | 12.2% | 24.5% | 12.3 pts |
| Away | 1.12 | 81.8% | 45.3% | -36.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Saint Martin
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Saint Martin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20