Baglan Dragonsvs
Pontypridd Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontypridd Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baglan Dragons 1-1 Pontypridd Town
Original prediction
Pontypridd Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 32.8% | 34.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 25.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.7% | 40.5% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Pontypridd Town
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Pontypridd Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00