Baglan Dragonsvs
Carmarthen Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/25/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baglan Dragons · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baglan Dragons 1-2 Carmarthen Town
Original prediction
Baglan Dragons
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 29.9% | 38.7% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.4% | 24.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 44.6% | 37.4% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Baglan Dragons
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Baglan Dragons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40