Baglan Dragonsvs
Caerau (Ely)
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baglan Dragons · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baglan Dragons 3-1 Caerau (Ely)
Original prediction
Baglan Dragons
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.87 | 18.6% | 39.4% | 20.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 23.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 59.0% | 36.9% | -22.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Baglan Dragons
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Baglan Dragons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 13 · GA 16 · avg 2.60/3.20