Baglan Dragonsvs
Afan Lido
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/4/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baglan Dragons · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baglan Dragons 2-1 Afan Lido
Original prediction
Baglan Dragons
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 44.8% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 25.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.7% | 30.2% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Baglan Dragons
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Baglan Dragons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60