Baglan Dragonsvs
Aberystwyth Town
POSTPONEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberystwyth Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.02 | 22.5% | 22.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.8% | 25.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 52.7% | 52.3% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Aberystwyth Town
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Aberystwyth Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Baglan DragonsWDWLL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Aberystwyth TownWLWDW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Baglan DragonsAberystwyth Town
36.4Attack81.5
63.6Defence66.7
51.5Form70.4
52.9Power71.5
0.81xG1.70