Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Badalona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Badalona 1-4 Cornellà
Original prediction
Badalona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.9% | 39.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 27.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.8% | 32.3% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Badalona
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Badalona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BadalonaDDWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CornellàLDLDD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
BadalonaCornellà
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form33.3
50.0Power45.3
1.77xG1.45