Badalona IIvs
Sestao River
COMPLETEDSpain · Copa Federacion · 9/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sestao River · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Badalona II 2-2 Sestao River
Original prediction
Sestao River
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.3% | 35.5% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.2% | 28.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.6% | 35.9% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sestao River
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Sestao River has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.67/1.33
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80