Badajozvs
Sanluqueño
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Badajoz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Badajoz 1-0 Sanluqueño
Original prediction
Badajoz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 54.7% | 48.4% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.5% | 26.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.76 | 18.9% | 24.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Badajoz
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Badajoz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60