Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Badajoz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Badajoz 1-0 Marbella
Original prediction
Badajoz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 46.9% | 46.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.3% | 27.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.8% | 25.8% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Badajoz
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Badajoz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BadajozDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarbellaLDWLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BadajozMarbella
40.0Attack40.0
66.7Defence46.7
53.3Form33.3
56.5Power40.9
1.35xG0.83