Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Babrungas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Babrungas 1-0 Jonava, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Babrungas 2-0 Jonava
Original prediction
Babrungas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 64.7% | 69.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 21.8% | 20.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 6.58 | 13.5% | 10.5% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Babrungas 1–0 Jonava
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Babrungas
Probability
69.0%
Model confidence
69.0%
Babrungas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BabrungasWWLWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
JonavaLLDWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BabrungasJonava
57.3Attack37.3
85.3Defence56.0
81.3Form36.0
75.6Power44.7
1.80xG0.52