Babrungasvs
Hegelmann II
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 10/25/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Babrungas · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Babrungas 4-0 Hegelmann II
Original prediction
Babrungas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 72.3% | 83.2% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.33 | 16.9% | 11.1% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 8.26 | 10.9% | 5.6% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Babrungas
Probability
83.2%
Model confidence
83.2%
Babrungas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00