Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Babrungas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Babrungas 3-2 Atmosfera
Original prediction
Babrungas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 57.8% | 62.1% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 23.8% | 22.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.4% | 15.9% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Babrungas
Probability
62.1%
Model confidence
62.1%
Babrungas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BabrungasLWDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtmosferaWLDLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BabrungasAtmosfera
56.5Attack51.5
87.0Defence56.1
79.7Form43.9
75.0Power50.5
1.74xG0.72