Başakşehirvs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Başakşehir · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Başakşehir 4-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Original prediction
Başakşehir
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.7% | 43.6% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 22.5% | 24.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.97 | 18.8% | 31.6% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Başakşehir
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Başakşehir has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80