Başakşehirvs
Galatasaray
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Galatasaray · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray
Original prediction
Galatasaray
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.83 | 19.4% | 30.4% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 58.4% | 43.8% | -14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Galatasaray
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Galatasaray has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80