Azerbaijanvs
Tajikistan
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Azerbaijan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Azerbaijan 1-0 Tajikistan
Original prediction
Azerbaijan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.8% | 42.7% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.5% | 28.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 20.7% | 29.1% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Azerbaijan
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Azerbaijan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80