Azerbaijanvs
Lithuania
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 39.6% | 35.2% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 31.4% | 30.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 29.0% | 34.7% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.1%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AzerbaijanDDWWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LithuaniaWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AzerbaijanLithuania
16.7Attack50.0
83.3Defence83.3
33.3Form66.7
48.3Power68.0
1.05xG1.14