Azerbaijanvs
Liechtenstein
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Azerbaijan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Azerbaijan 0-0 Liechtenstein
Original prediction
Azerbaijan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 85.9% | 53.6% | -32.3 pts |
| Draw | 8.72 | 10.8% | 24.0% | 13.2 pts |
| Away | 29.14 | 3.2% | 22.4% | 19.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 7.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Azerbaijan
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Azerbaijan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00