AZ Picernovs
Salernitana
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 10/26/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salernitana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Picerno 3-0 Salernitana
Original prediction
Salernitana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 27.9% | 33.1% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.8% | 27.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 43.2% | 39.6% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Salernitana
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Salernitana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00