AZ Picernovs
Catania
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 9/15/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Picerno 2-4 Catania
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.4% | 34.8% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.8% | 30.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 39.8% | 35.3% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AZ PicernoLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CataniaLWLLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AZ PicernoCatania
46.5Attack100.0
64.9Defence100.0
50.9Form100.0
54.6Power97.0
1.16xG1.06