AZ Picernovs
Audace Cerignola
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 9/26/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Picerno · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Picerno 2-1 Audace Cerignola
Original prediction
AZ Picerno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.4% | 38.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.3% | 30.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.3% | 31.5% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
AZ Picerno
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
AZ Picerno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80