AZ Alkmaarvs
Willem II
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 82.7% | 71.8% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 8.47 | 11.1% | 15.7% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 15.22 | 6.2% | 12.5% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 7.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
71.8%
Model confidence
71.8%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80