AZ Alkmaarvs
Twente
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/25/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Alkmaar 0-2 Twente
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 44.0% | 48.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.9% | 22.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 31.1% | 28.5% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80