AZ Alkmaarvs
Telstar
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Telstar
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 76.1% | 73.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.43 | 14.6% | 15.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 10.13 | 9.3% | 10.9% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
73.8%
Model confidence
73.8%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00