AZ Alkmaarvs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 71.0% | 44.6% | -26.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.49 | 17.3% | 25.8% | 8.6 pts |
| Away | 8.12 | 11.7% | 29.5% | 17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80