AZ Alkmaarvs
GO Ahead Eagles
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/29/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead Eagles
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.0% | 51.8% | -17.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.31 | 17.7% | 22.9% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 7.04 | 13.4% | 25.4% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80