GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 1/23/2025, 5:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

AZ Alkmaar are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while AS Roma are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (53.5 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

AS Roma

Probability

47.1%

Model confidence

47.1%

AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AZ AlkmaarDDWWD

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AS RomaWDWDW

GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AZ AlkmaarAS Roma
58.3Attack54.8
47.2Defence71.4
50.0Form59.5
53.5Power61.6
1.05xG1.63
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