Ayutthaya FCvs
Muangthong United
COMPLETEDThailand · FA Cup · 10/21/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayutthaya FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayutthaya FC 2-1 Muangthong United
Original prediction
Ayutthaya FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 17:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.2% | 43.3% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.2% | 26.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 20.6% | 30.6% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Ayutthaya FC
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Ayutthaya FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00