Ayr Utdvs
Stenhousemuir
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stenhousemuir · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ayr Utd 0-1 Stenhousemuir, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayr Utd 0-1 Stenhousemuir
Original prediction
Stenhousemuir
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.2% | 29.3% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.2% | 29.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.7% | 40.9% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Projected Score
Ayr Utd 0–1 Stenhousemuir
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Stenhousemuir
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Stenhousemuir has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ayr UtdWLLDL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
StenhousemuirWWLWW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Ayr UtdStenhousemuir
33.3Attack52.4
61.9Defence90.5
38.1Form90.5
45.9Power80.5
0.66xG1.23