Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayr Utd 1-1 Morton
Original prediction
Ayr Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.5% | 48.1% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.9% | 27.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.6% | 24.3% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ayr UtdLLDWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MortonLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Ayr UtdMorton
33.3Attack11.1
66.7Defence44.4
44.4Form0.0
49.5Power22.9
1.40xG0.81