Ayr Utdvs
Dunfermline
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ayr Utd 0-0 Dunfermline, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayr Utd 1-1 Dunfermline
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 29.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.6% | 32.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 42.1% | 35.9% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.19 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Ayr Utd 0–0 Dunfermline
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.8%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ayr UtdWLWLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DunfermlineLWWDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Ayr UtdDunfermline
33.3Attack28.6
63.0Defence81.0
40.7Form57.1
47.5Power57.9
0.67xG0.72