Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ASIL Lysi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayia Napa 1-3 ASIL Lysi
Original prediction
ASIL Lysi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.11 | 22.2% | 26.8% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 25.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 51.5% | 48.0% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
ASIL Lysi
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
ASIL Lysi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ayia NapaWWLDL
GF 14 · GA 14 · avg 2.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
ASIL LysiLWLDL
GF 10 · GA 17 · avg 2.00/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Ayia NapaASIL Lysi
40.2Attack41.4
40.2Defence58.6
34.5Form49.4
40.1Power51.4
1.03xG1.40