Ayeyawady Unitedvs
Thitsar Arman
COMPLETEDMyanmar · National League · 10/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thitsar Arman · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ayeyawady United 1-3 Thitsar Arman
Original prediction
Thitsar Arman
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 39.4% | 36.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 34.9% | 37.9% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Thitsar Arman
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Thitsar Arman has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40