Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AVS 0-0 Tondela, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
AVS 2-1 Tondela
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.7% | 32.7% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 30.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 45.2% | 36.6% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
AVS 0–0 Tondela
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AVSWWWDL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TondelaWWWWW
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AVSTondela
38.1Attack38.1
66.7Defence71.4
42.9Form57.1
51.4Power56.6
0.84xG0.83