AVSvs
Moreirense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AVS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AVS 1-0 Moreirense
Original prediction
AVS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.7% | 40.4% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.2% | 27.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.2% | 32.6% | -11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
AVS
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
AVS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AVSWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MoreirenseLDWLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AVSMoreirense
66.7Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
2.04xG1.28