Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avro 4-4 Leek Town
Original prediction
Avro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 48.7% | 53.3% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 23.5% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.3% | 23.2% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Avro
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Avro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvroWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Leek TownWLDDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
AvroLeek Town
86.7Attack53.3
60.0Defence53.3
80.0Form33.3
73.4Power47.1
2.20xG1.15