Avrovs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avro 5-3 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Avro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.6% | 60.7% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.3% | 20.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.2% | 19.1% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Avro
Probability
60.7%
Model confidence
60.7%
Avro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00