Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Avranches are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Marignane are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Marignane hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (40.9 v 43.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.9% in the Ligue 3, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.9%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.50/2.00