Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avondale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avondale 2-0 Hume City
Original prediction
Avondale
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.9% | 52.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.0% | 19.5% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.1% | 27.8% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Avondale
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Avondale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvondaleWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Hume CityWWWLL
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AvondaleHume City
84.0Attack68.0
54.7Defence54.7
58.7Form65.3
62.2Power64.0
2.47xG1.73